Strategic importance of Jammu and Kashmir among the regional powers of Asia

Strategic Views on the State of Jammu & Kashmir

PAKISTAN

The summers in Pakistan leads to acute water shortage; hence J& K is important for Pakistan’s survival and sustainable industrial and agricultural growth as losing J& K may end their sovereign control over the lifeline of Pakistan, the mighty Indus as well as several of its northern tributaries. Pakistan's per capita water availability has plummeted from 5,600m3 (1947) to 1,200m3 (2005) due to its burgeoning population and Indus has become indispensible for Pakistan’s survival. (Waslekar et al- International Centre for Peace Initiatives) Pakistan also has an eye on the mineral wealth of J & K which has considerable reserves of bauxite (8.6 million tonnes) (State geological survey), high quality limestone, gypsum deposits (100 million tonnes) and high quality sapphires. J & K is a source of high quality timber and saffron which fetch the best prices in the world. All these economic factors make Pakistan’s interests in J & K much more than a religious war.

INDIA

Beyond the concept of unity in diversity and the tag of a “secular state”, J & K has other strategic factors which make it indispensible for India. In its entirety, J & K provides India with a foot into the door to central Asia, a resource too important for the country’s growing oil and natural gas requirements; at the status quo position today it allows India to maintain a special status in the affairs of the central Asian region. Further, tourism revenues and horticultural revenues also form a large part of the interests. Despite its current status, a future look into the mineral wealth of J & K is also on the table for the government. If we wonder to see why the rise of militancy took place in J&K beyond the obvious sentimental motive fired up by Pakistan, it was the lack of infrastructural development in J&K in comparison to other hilly regions like Himachal Pradesh and Kumaon & Garwhal division of UP (now Uttarakhand). Further any major development that did take place in the state was confined mainly to Jammu region and the city of Srinagar which fueled discontent among the rural population.

CHINA

Spill over effect of Kashmir dispute into its Xing Jiang province which has a substantial Muslim population. Further China in the long run sees an arc of hostility as the only visible counter to the rising Indian republic which may form a strategic alliance with western powers in the coming years. With Kashmir either as a buffer state or within the control of Pakistan, China can extend its sphere of influence. The Karakoram highway between Pakistan and China running through J & K is symbolic of this fact. Pakistan in turn gets Chinese weapons for its army and provides Chinese an easy access to the Gulf which can be a potential gold mine for Chinese products and for oil imports from the gulf using the Gwadar port it is developing on Makran coast.

All in all Jammu & Kashmir is one strategically important pie which none of the regional powers would share with others for reasons beyond religion, ethnicity and historical borders.

Originally Written for IIMConnect by Abhishek Bakshi as columnist for Strategy Vertical